With conference tournaments underway and March Madness quickly approaching, let’s take a look at some mid-major teams that could make a splash at the end of the month.
I. Best in their league, at-large potential, serious upset threat
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (27-3, 18-1 Southland)
SFA provided one of the most memorable moments of the college basketball season with its Nov. 26 overtime win at then-number 1 Duke. Competitive road losses to at-large hopefuls Rutgers and Alabama are certainly excusable. A head-scratching home loss to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is the lone blemish on the ‘Jacks resume. Behind senior guard Kevon Harris (17.8 ppg), they will look to run slow, methodical teams out of the building with their fast-paced offense.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers (27-4, 16-2 Southern)
The SoCon has been the deepest mid-major conference in the country over the past two years, but this year, the title goes through Johnson City. The Bucs haven’t lost since January 29, which can be attributed to their depth and their balanced scoring attack. Only 3 players average double-figure scoring, but 7 average at least 7 ppg. A December win at LSU is the crown jewel of their resume.
Northern Iowa Panthers (25-5, 14-4 Missouri Valley)
Ben Jacobson’s teams have carried the torch in the Valley for the better part of the last decade after the departures of Creighton and Wichita State, and this year has been no different. Non-conference wins over South Carolina (neutral-court) and at Colorado put the Panthers in perhaps the best position of anyone on this list to grab an at-large bid should they need one. Led by sophomore A.J. Green (19.7 ppg), UNI has the 18th-best offensive efficiency in the nation according to KenPom. It can win a high-scoring shootout, which will serve it well come tournament time.
New Mexico State Aggies (24-6, 15-0 WAC)
Always the class of the WAC, the Aggies have thus far escaped conference play without any hiccups. The 15-0 league mark is complemented by a road win over tournament-hopeful Mississippi State. Their pace of play is among the slowest in the nation, and they will look to work the shot clock and break defenses down with good ball movement.
II. Not quite at-large potential, but a tough draw nonetheless
Liberty Flames (27-4, 13-3 Atlantic Sun)
Liberty has one of the best mid-major trios in the land in Caleb Homesley, Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz, and Scottie James. Unlike most teams on this list, its returning core of players has already experienced some NCAA Tournament success. Last year, the Flames nearly reached the Sweet 16 as a 12 seed by defeating Mississippi State and battling with Virginia Tech down to the wire. Wins away from home over Vanderbilt and Akron are evidence that coach Ritchie McKay’s team could bust some more brackets this year.
Vermont Catamounts (24-7, 14-2 America East)
Anthony Lamb has been one of the most valuable mid-major players in the country this year. He leads the Catamounts in points (16.5), rebounds (7.3), and blocks (1.3), and is second on the team in steals and third in assists. Beyond Lamb, the Catamounts are a great defensive unit. They hold opponents to the fifth-worst field goal percentage in the nation, behind only Memphis, Virginia, Kansas, and Michigan State. That’s a figure that defensive-minded head coach John Becker would undoubtedly be proud of.
Wright State Raiders (25-6, 15-3 Horizon)
All of the buzz in Dayton this year has been centered around Obi Toppin and the championship-contending Flyers. But across town, Wright State has been quietly having its best season in program history. Coach Scott Nagy, who now has a .684 career winning percentage through four seasons coaching the Raiders, has worked wonders with this program. This year, they are led by junior Loudon Love, who is averaging nearly a double-double (16.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg).
Belmont Bruins (24-7, 15-3 Ohio Valley)
A year after earning the first at-large bid and the first NCAA Tournament win in program history, the Bruins are back on top of the OVC. They boast road wins over Boston College and Western Kentucky. As a team, they have recorded a gaudy 18.5 assists per game, which ranks first in the nation by a wide margin. The main beneficiaries of this selfless offense have been Adam Kunkel (16.6 ppg) and Nick Muszynski (15.2).
III. Worthy tournament contender, but automatic bid is unlikely
Furman Paladins (25-6, 15-3 Southern)
This Furman team returns some key pieces from last year’s team that at one point was ranked in the AP poll. Most notably, senior guard Jordan Lyons (16.4 ppg) can light it up on any given night. Competitive road losses against Auburn and Alabama show that the Paladins can compete on the national level. Unfortunately for them, ETSU will be the favorite heading into the SoCon tournament in Asheville.
Murray State Racers (22-8, 15-3 Ohio Valley)
This year’s Racers are a far cry from last year’s Ja Morant-led team that won a game in the tournament and took the nation by storm. They return several pieces from that group, however, and they’re still very much in the mix for the OVC auto bid. Tevin Brown has paced Murray State, averaging nearly 18 points per game. They split the regular season series with Belmont in two competitive contests, and have had little trouble with the rest of the league.
UNC Greensboro Spartans (23-8, 13-5 Southern)
Remember when I said that the SoCon was the deepest mid-major league in the nation? UNCG boasts road wins over Georgetown, Vermont, and Furman, as well as an impressive close loss at current top-ranked Kansas. And yes, despite that impressive resume, it has only the third-best odds to emerge from Asheville victorious. The Spartans would likely have to defeat Furman and ETSU in the conference semis and finals, respectively, and they will look to junior guard Isaiah Miller (17.8 ppg) to lead them. Their road to March Madness is a bumpy one. But after all, this IS March. Much crazier things have happened.
Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (21-10, 13-5 Missouri Valley)
The time is now for the Ramblers to rekindle the magic of their 2018 Final Four run. It all starts with Arch Madness next weekend in Saint Louis. They’ll have to knock off Northern Iowa to capture the Valley’s auto bid. They already did it on their home floor, and they were able to force overtime in Cedar Falls. This potential conference championship matchup will be a must-watch on the afternoon of Selection Sunday.
IV. Did someone say UMBC?……FGCU?……Middle Tennessee?
Yale Bulldogs (22-6, 10-2 Ivy)
Harvard was the clear Ivy League favorite in the preseason. But as it stands, it’s Yale that’s in the driver’s seat for the regular season league title. It boasts wins over Clemson and Vermont, as well as one-possession road defeats at the hands of Penn State and North Carolina. It currently sits within the top 75 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom, one of only two teams on this list (ETSU) with that distinction. Junior forward Paul Atkinson has been the Bulldogs’ go-to guy, averaging 17.5 points per contest on the season.
Colgate Raiders (23-8, 14-4 Patriot)
Last year, Colgate came very close to knocking off Tennessee as a 15 seed. It returns key personnel from that team, and it’s been by far the Patriot League’s best team this year. A nonconference schedule full of power conference competition, highlighted by a win at Cincinnati, has given it plenty of experience on the big stage. Jordan Burns, Rapolas Ivanauskas, and Will Rayman lead a balanced scoring attack for the Raiders.
Akron Zips (23-7, 13-4 MAC)
Buffalo’s regression to the mean following their historic 2018-2019 season left this year’s MAC wide open. It was the Zips that stepped up in the biggest way, putting themselves in a position to win the MAC East and secure the number 1 overall seed in next week’s conference tournament. They have a win over Tulane and have played Louisville and West Virginia tight in road contests. Chicago native Loren Christian Jackson, standing at 5’8”, has been impressive, scoring 20 ppg.
Hofstra Pride (23-8, 14-4 Colonial)
Hofstra’s road win against UCLA is looking better and better by the day in light of the Bruins recent surge. While that’s the flashiest win on its resume, the Pride has, for the most part, taken care of a solid CAA. Seniors Desure Buie and Eli Pemberton have led the way for Joe Mihalich’s high-powered offense. It won’t be an easy road to the Big Dance, with worthy opponents Delaware and William & Mary standing in the way, but Hofstra is a dark horse to win its first ever NCAA Tournament game.
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